What the CPI measures
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) tracks the average change over time in the prices that urban consumers pay for a fixed basket of goods and services: food, housing, energy, clothing, transport, medical care and more. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes it monthly. When people say "inflation was 3.7%" they usually mean the 12-month change in the all-items CPI for all urban consumers (CPI-U). The next releases in the economic calendar are Tuesday 10 November 2026, Thursday 10 December 2026, each at 08:30 New York time.
How the 12-month rate is calculated
The CPI is an index, not a price. The BLS sets the average of 1982 to 1984 equal to 100, so a reading of 336.940 means that the basket costs 336.940% of what it cost then. The headline rate compares the index with the same month a year earlier:
One consequence is that the basket you could buy for $100 in September 2025 costs $103.74 in September 2026. Another is the base effect: the rate depends on last year's level as well as this year's. If prices jumped twelve months ago, the 12-month rate falls when that jump drops out of the comparison, even if prices keep rising.
The last twelve official readings
The values below come from the BLS public data files (series CUUR0000SA0, not seasonally adjusted) as held in the calendar on 2026-11-05. Where the file has no value for a month (October 2025), the table says so, and the changes that need that month show n/a.
| Month | Index (1982-84 = 100) | Change on the month before | 12-month change |
|---|---|---|---|
| September 2026 | 336.940 | +0.59% | 3.7% |
| August 2026 | 334.980 | +0.32% | 3.4% |
| July 2026 | 333.918 | −0.01% | 3.4% |
| June 2026 | 333.952 | −0.35% | 3.5% |
| May 2026 | 335.123 | +0.63% | 4.2% |
| April 2026 | 333.020 | +0.85% | 3.8% |
| March 2026 | 330.213 | +1.05% | 3.3% |
| February 2026 | 326.785 | +0.47% | 2.4% |
| January 2026 | 325.252 | +0.37% | 2.4% |
| December 2025 | 324.054 | −0.02% | 2.7% |
| November 2025 | 324.122 | n/a | 2.7% |
| October 2025 | not in the BLS file | n/a | n/a |
Over these months the 12-month rate ranged from 2.4% to 4.2%. The monthly changes in the table are calculated from the not seasonally adjusted index, so they differ from the seasonally adjusted monthly change that news reports usually quote. The 12-month rate is normally quoted unadjusted, which is why it matches the headline.
Headline, core and what the Fed watches
- Headline CPI covers everything in the basket, including food and energy, which can swing from month to month.
- Core CPI leaves out food and energy to show the underlying trend. It is published in the same report; this page does not show core values.
- PCE inflation is a separate measure published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve states its 2% longer-run inflation goal in terms of PCE, not the CPI, but the CPI comes out first each month and moves the market.
- PPI measures the prices producers receive and is published in the same week as the CPI; it is in the calendar too.
Why traders watch it
Inflation feeds the expected path of interest rates: a figure above what the market expected can raise rate expectations and a figure below it can lower them. That moves bond yields, the dollar, gold and stock indices, often within seconds of 08:30 New York time. As with payrolls, the reaction depends on the surprise against forecasts, which the calendar does not show. See what is NFP for the jobs report and what is an FOMC meeting for how the Fed weighs both.
Sizing a trade around the release
Gold is a common instrument on CPI days. One standard lot is 100 ounces, so a $1 move is worth $100 per lot. For a $10,000 account risking 1% ($100):
| Plan | Stop ($ per ounce) | Lots | Loss if stopped at the level | Loss if the stop fills $6 beyond |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normal day | $8 | 0.12 | $96 (1.0%) | $168 (1.7%) |
| Same lots into the release | $8 | 0.12 | $96 (1.0%) | $168 (1.7%) |
| Wider stop for the release | $20 | 0.05 | $100 (1.0%) | $130 (1.3%) |
| Half the risk, wider stop | $20 | 0.02 | $40 (0.4%) | $52 (0.5%) |
A stop of $8 and 0.12 lots risks $96. If you keep that size through the release and the stop fills $6 beyond its level, the loss is $168. With a wider $20 stop the same 1% risk gives 0.05 lots, and a slip of $6 would cost $130. The pattern is the same for any instrument: the wider the stop you need for the event, the smaller the position that keeps the risk constant. Work out your own numbers with the position size calculator and check the contract value in the margin calculator; the gold (XAUUSD) page has the pip and point values.
Measure whether the extra risk pays with the risk reward calculator: a wider stop needs a more distant target to keep the same ratio, and a target that is further away is reached less often.
Figures: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, public data files (series CUUR0000SA0), as held in the calendar on 2026-11-05. Education only, not financial advice.
Try it with your own numbers
Free calculators that do the math for you. No signup, and nothing leaves your browser.
Pre-set for the market you trade
Pip, point and tick values differ by instrument. These calculators start from each one's contract, with worked examples:
Quick questions
What does CPI stand for?
CPI is the Consumer Price Index, the US measure of the average change in prices paid by urban consumers, published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
How is the CPI inflation rate calculated?
By dividing this month's index by the index twelve months earlier and subtracting 1. For September 2026, 336.940 ÷ 324.800 − 1 = 3.7%.
What time is the CPI released?
At 08:30 New York time on the date set in the BLS schedule, usually in the middle of the month. The calendar shows it in your own time zone.
What is the difference between CPI and core CPI?
Core CPI leaves out food and energy prices, which are volatile, to show the underlying trend. Headline CPI includes them.
Why can inflation fall while prices keep rising?
Because the 12-month rate compares with a year ago. If prices rose sharply twelve months ago, that jump leaves the comparison and the rate drops, even though the price level is still going up.
Place the stop where the idea fails.
On a release day the stop sets the size. These indicators help you mark the level.
Keep reading
Last updated November 2026. For education only. Not financial advice.