What the quiz measures
A risk tolerance is not a feeling about risk, it is a statement about a loss: "I could not stay in the game after the balance falls 20% from where I started". Whether a trading plan is compatible with that statement is arithmetic. This quiz asks for the numbers behind your plan and answers one question: over the trades you will take, how likely is your balance to touch the loss you said you could accept?
It then asks it a second way, because the numbers you type are estimates. A win rate measured on 30 trades could be far from your true win rate, so the quiz computes the range your true win rate plausibly lies in (a 95% Wilson interval) and repeats the calculation at the low end. If the answer changes a lot, your plan depends more on luck in the estimate than on the edge.
How the profile is chosen
| Profile | When it applies | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Steady Sailor | Chance of touching your limit under 5% | Your risk sits well inside the loss you said you could accept, for the numbers you entered. |
| Careful Climber | 5% to under 20% | The limit is a real possibility over your trades, not a likely one. Check the low-end win rate. |
| Tightrope Walker | 20% to under 50% | More likely than not you stay above your limit, but only just, and a rough patch of the win rate takes you past it. |
| Storm Chaser | 50% or more | Your plan is more likely than not to touch the loss you said you could not accept. |
| Treadmill Runner | Expectancy of zero or below | The average trade does not pay, so the other numbers matter less: no risk level fixes a plan with no edge. |
The chance comes from the same exact engine as the trader survival game: it follows every possible number of wins trade by trade, so there is no sampling noise. The profile names are for fun. The numbers are not.
How much risk fits the limit you can accept
The largest risk per trade (in steps of 0.05%) that keeps the chance of ever touching the limit within 100 trades under 5%:
| Win rate and average win | Expectancy per trade | Limit −10% | Limit −20% | Limit −30% | Limit −50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35% at 2× | +0.05R | 0.45% | 0.9% | 1.45% | 2.8% |
| 45% at 1.5× | +0.125R | 0.7% | 1.45% | 2.3% | 4.25% |
| 55% at 1× | +0.1R | 0.85% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 5.15% |
| 60% at 0.8× | +0.08R | 0.9% | 1.9% | 3% | 5.45% |
For a 45% win rate with winners 1.5 times the losers, the largest risk that keeps a 20% fall under a 5% chance is 1.45%, while a 50% fall allows 4.25%. Risking more than the limits in the table is not wrong in itself, but it means accepting a larger chance of the fall you said you could not accept. See how much to risk per trade for the wider question.
The chance depends on how long you trade
The longer you trade at one risk, the more chances the balance has to touch your limit, so the risk that fits falls with the number of trades. For the same edge:
| Trades you will take | Largest risk per trade (limit −20%, under 5% chance) |
|---|---|
| 50 | 1.8% |
| 100 | 1.45% |
| 250 | 1.2% |
| 500 | 1.15% |
And the other direction: the chance of touching a 20% fall within 100 trades at different risk levels, with the same edge (45% wins, 1.5× winners):
| Risk per trade | Chance of being 20% below the start within 100 trades |
|---|---|
| 0.5% | under 0.1% |
| 1% | 0.7% |
| 2% | 12% |
| 3% | 26% |
| 5% | 48% |
Why the sample size matters
If you measured a 45% win rate, the true figure could be lower. With 2% risk, 1.5× winners and 100 trades, the chance of a 20% fall at the measured 45% is 12%, but the table shows what it is at the low end of the range for different numbers of recorded trades:
| Trades recorded | Range for the true win rate (95%) | Chance of a 20% fall at the low end | Chance at the measured 45% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 26% to 66% | over 99% | 12% |
| 60 | 33% to 58% | 85% | 12% |
| 150 | 37% to 53% | 58% | 12% |
| 400 | 40% to 50% | 37% | 12% |
With 20 recorded trades the low end of the range is 26% and the chance of touching the limit rises to over 99%; with 400 trades it is 37%. The quiz does this for your own answers. A trading journal is how you get from 20 trades to 400, and the risk reward calculator shows the same range for a measured win rate.
What to do with the result
- If your profile is Tightrope Walker or Storm Chaser, lower the risk to the figure the quiz gives, or accept a larger limit on purpose and write that down.
- If the low-end chance is far above the chance at your measured win rate, treat your win rate as unproven and size for the low end until your record is longer.
- Turn the risk into a position with the position size calculator and put it on a card with the trade plan card.
- Try your answers in the survival game to watch a run of them.
What the quiz does not know
- It assumes independent trades with the same win rate and payoff every time. Real trades cluster, so real streaks and falls can be longer.
- It uses the closing balance after each trade and ignores costs, which you can include by lowering the average winner.
- It does not know your strategy, your discipline or your finances. It is education, not advice.
The formulas
chance of touching the limit = the share of paths that reach 1 − limit within the trades, followed trade by trade
win rate range (Wilson, 95%) = (p + z²/2n ± z × √(p(1 − p)/n + z²/4n²)) ÷ (1 + z²/n), z = 1.96r is the risk per trade, W the average winner in multiples of the loss, p the win rate and n the number of trades recorded. The risk that fits is found by raising r in steps of 0.05% until the chance passes 5%.
Worked examples
The default answers
45% wins, winners 1.5× the losers, 2% risk, 100 trades, a 20% limit, 150 trades recorded. The chance of touching the limit is 12%; the largest risk that keeps it under 5% is 1.45%.
A short record
The same plan, but only 20 trades recorded: the 95% range for the win rate is 26% to 66%, and at the low end the chance of touching the limit is over 99%.
The same edge at 5% risk
Five percent risk per trade with the same numbers: the chance of being 20% down within 100 trades rises to 48%.
Frequently asked questions
What does the quiz score?
Your numbers, not your personality: the exact chance that your balance touches the loss you said you could accept, given your win rate, payoff, risk per trade and number of trades, and the same chance at the low end of your win-rate range.
Is the profile a prediction?
No. It describes how your plan's odds compare with your own stated limit. It assumes independent trades with a steady win rate and payoff, and real results can be worse.
Why does it ask how many trades I have recorded?
Because a win rate measured on few trades is uncertain. The quiz computes the range your true win rate plausibly lies in and repeats the calculation at the low end, so a short record shows up as a larger risk.
What is the risk that fits?
The largest risk per trade, in steps of 0.05%, that keeps the chance of ever touching your limit within the number of trades you will take at 5% or less.
Is anything stored or sent?
No. The quiz runs in your browser, the card is drawn there and nothing is uploaded. The share link holds your answers as numbers in the address.
Is this financial advice?
No. It does arithmetic on the numbers you enter, for education. Trading carries a risk of loss and a past win rate does not predict a future one.
Know your limit, then find setups that fit inside it.
The odds above depend on a win rate and payoff you can verify. These indicators help you look for setups worth testing.
Last updated November 2026. For education only. Not financial advice. Results depend on your inputs and cannot predict future performance.