How the game works
You enter a win rate, how much a winner makes compared with the amount you risk, the share of your balance you risk on each trade, how many trades you will take, and the balance drop at which the game is over. The page then does two things. It works out the exact odds of what can happen over those trades, and it plays one run of them with a random number generator so you can watch an account live or die.
The odds are the part to trust. The run is only one draw from them: it can be better or worse than the odds suggest, which is the point. Most traders judge a strategy by the one run they live through. The game shows that run next to thirty others generated with the same odds, and a fresh draw whenever you press "Roll a new run". The same link always gives the same run, because the run number is part of the link.
Why the odds are exact
If you risk a fixed share r of the current balance, a winner multiplies the balance by a = 1 + r × W and a loser by b = 1 − r. The order of wins and losses does not change what the balance is after the trades: after k wins in t trades it is ak × bt − k. So the only thing to track is how many wins have happened, and the chance of each count follows from the win rate. Stepping through the trades one at a time and removing the paths that touch the game-over line gives the exact chance of every outcome, with no random sampling and no noise. The test suite checks the method against every possible sequence of 14 trades and against 200,000 random runs.
game over when the balance reaches 1 − drop, checked after every trader is the risk per trade as a fraction of the balance, W the average win in multiples of the risk, and drop the balance fall at which the game ends.
How much risk the same edge can carry
The default edge is a 45% win rate with 1.5R winners and 100 trades, an expectancy of +0.125R per trade. Only the risk per trade changes in the table:
| Risk per trade | Game over (balance −50%) | Ever 20% below the start | Finish ahead | Median finish if you survive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5% | 0% | under 1% | 82% | 1.06× |
| 1% | under 0.1% | 1% | 82% | 1.12× |
| 2% | under 0.1% | 12% | 82% | 1.24× |
| 3% | 0.8% | 26% | 82% | 1.36× |
| 5% | 8.9% | 48% | 75% | 1.75× |
| 8% | 29% | 67% | 62% | 2.48× |
| 10% | 41% | 73% | 55% | 2.68× |
| 15% | 64% | 85% | 33% | 5.24× |
| 20% | 79% | 93% | 21% | 7.11× |
At 1% risk the game is never over in practice and 82% of the runs finish ahead. At 5% risk, one run in 11 reaches the game-over line, and 48% of the runs spend some time 20% below the start. At 10% the game ends in 41% of runs, even though the edge is positive, and at 20% it ends in 79%. The median finish among the runs that survive keeps rising with the risk, but only because the runs that went badly are no longer counted: the share of runs that finish ahead falls from 82% to 21%. A high median among survivors is not a high chance of surviving. See also how much to risk per trade and what is risk of ruin.
Edge matters less than you think over a short stretch
At 2% risk, 100 trades, the same table for different edges. A positive expectancy raises the chance of finishing ahead, but even a small positive edge leaves a large chance of ending below the start, and every edge has long losing streaks:
| Win rate | Average win | Expectancy per trade | Game over | Finish ahead | Typical worst losing streak | Chance of 8+ losses in a row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55% | 1R | +0.1R | under 0.1% | 82% | 5 | 8% |
| 50% | 1R | 0R | 0.1% | 46% | 6 | 17% |
| 45% | 1.5R | +0.125R | under 0.1% | 82% | 6 | 31% |
| 40% | 1.5R | 0R | 0.5% | 46% | 7 | 49% |
| 35% | 2R | +0.05R | 0.6% | 62% | 9 | 69% |
| 60% | 0.8R | +0.08R | under 0.1% | 76% | 4 | 4% |
| 30% | 2R | −0.1R | 6.3% | 22% | 10 | 86% |
The no-edge rows are the sobering ones. A 50% win rate at 1R and a 40% win rate at 1.5R both have an expectancy of zero, and both finish ahead in fewer than half of the runs, because compounding makes a loss hurt more than a win helps. A 60% win rate with winners of 0.8R finishes ahead in 76% of runs, a figure that looks safe until you remember how sensitive it is to a win rate that is a few points lower. The risk reward calculator shows how reliable a measured win rate is.
The number of trades changes the picture
Ruin is not a single moment. The longer you trade at the same risk, the more chances the balance gets to touch the line. At 5% risk with the default edge:
| Number of trades | Game over (balance −50%) | Finish ahead of the start |
|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.5% | 62% |
| 50 | 3.8% | 71% |
| 100 | 8.9% | 75% |
| 250 | 15.4% | 80% |
| 500 | 18.0% | 81% |
The chance of reaching the game-over line is 0.5% over 25 trades, 8.9% over 100 and 18.0% over 500. It flattens out because the edge is positive: a balance that has grown is far from the line. With no edge it would keep climbing toward certainty.
Losing streaks, the part of the game people forget
Whatever the edge, a long losing streak is likely somewhere in a hundred trades. The game shows the typical worst streak for your win rate. For reference:
| Win rate | Typical worst losing streak in 100 trades | Chance of 5+ in a row | Chance of 8+ in a row |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35% | 9 | over 99% | 69% |
| 45% | 6 | 92% | 31% |
| 55% | 5 | 65% | 8% |
| 65% | 4 | 29% | 1% |
At a 35% win rate the worst streak in 100 trades is typically 9 losses in a row, and 8 or more happens in 69% of runs. Risk 5% on each of those nine and the balance is down 37%. Read the streak next to your risk per trade, and size the next trade accordingly with the position size calculator.
What the game does not tell you
- Your win rate and payoff are estimates. A true win rate a few points lower than the one you enter changes the odds a lot. Try it.
- Trades are treated as independent with the same win rate every time. Real trades cluster, so real streaks can be longer than the table says.
- Costs are not included. Spread, commission and slippage lower the average win and enlarge the average loss; put them into the payoff you enter.
- The game-over line is yours to choose. A prop firm, a margin call or your own patience each sets one. The line applies to the closing balance after each trade, not inside a trade.
- It is not a forecast and it is not advice. It shows what your assumptions imply.
How this differs from the other risk tools
The risk of ruin calculator gives the chance of ever reaching a loss over an unlimited number of trades. The trading strategy simulator samples many equity curves with many settings. This game fixes the horizon, gives the exact odds and shows one run with a card you can keep. Use the forex compounding calculator to see the same effect over months, and drawdown recovery calculator to see what a fall needs to get back.
The formulas
b = 1 − r (a loser)
balance after k wins in t trades = ak × bt − k
P(k wins in t trades) = C(t, k) × pk × (1 − p)t − k, summed over the paths that stay above the game-over linep is the win rate. The paths are followed one trade at a time, and a path that reaches 1 − drop of the start is removed and counted as game over.
Worked examples
Default: 45% at 1.5R, 5% risk
The edge is positive (+0.125R per trade), and with 100 trades there is still a 8.9% chance that the balance falls to half at some point and a 48% chance that it is 20% below the start at some time.
The same edge at 1% risk
Smaller bets make the same win rate and payoff almost indestructible over 100 trades: under 0.1% chance of reaching the line, and 0.7% of ever being 20% down.
The same edge at 10% risk
A common beginner risk. The game ends in 41% of runs even though the edge is the same, and the chance to finish ahead falls to 55%.
Frequently asked questions
What does the Trader Survival Game show?
The exact chance that an account survives a number of trades at your win rate, payoff and risk per trade without the balance falling to the game-over line, plus the chance of finishing ahead and of a long losing streak, and one played run that you can share.
Are the odds simulated?
No. They are calculated exactly by following every possible number of wins trade by trade, so they have no sampling noise. Only the played run and the thirty runs behind it are random draws, and they use a fixed run number so a link reproduces them.
What does game over mean?
The balance, measured after each trade, reaches the level you chose: a drop from the starting balance of 50% by default. It stands for a prop firm drawdown rule, a margin call or the point where you would stop trading.
How is this different from the risk of ruin calculator?
The risk of ruin calculator estimates the chance of ever reaching a loss over an unlimited number of trades. The game fixes the number of trades, gives exact odds for it, and adds a played run and a result card.
Does the game predict my results?
No. It shows what the numbers you enter imply, assuming independent trades with a constant win rate and payoff. Your real win rate and payoff are estimates and can be lower, and costs are not included.
Is the result card uploaded anywhere?
No. The image is drawn in your browser, and downloading it saves a file to your device. Nothing is sent to a server.
Is this financial advice?
No. It is an educational model of the numbers you enter. Trading carries a risk of loss, results are not guaranteed, and a past win rate does not predict a future one.
Survive first. Then find the edge.
The odds above depend on a win rate and payoff you believe in. These indicators help you look for setups to test in a journal.
Guides that explain it
Last updated November 2026. For education only. Not financial advice. Results depend on your inputs and cannot predict future performance.