One trade, then a race
Everything starts from the expectancy of one trade, in multiples of the amount risked (R): E = p × W − (1 − p) × L, where p is the win rate, W the average win and L the average loss. With a 45% win rate and 1.5R winners and 1R losers, E = 0.45 × 1.5 − 0.55 × 1 = +0.125R per trade. At 1% risk that is an expected 0.125% of the account per trade, so a 10% target needs about 80 trades on average. At two trades a day that is 40 days, longer than a 30-day limit.
That is the first part of the pass rate: the expected speed. The second part is the spread. Wins and losses arrive in random order, so some attempts reach the target early and others hit a loss limit first. A challenge is a race between a target and two walls, with a clock. The numbers below come from the prop firm challenge simulator with 5,000 simulated attempts per row. They are for one example set of rules and are not statistics about any firm's traders.
Firms differ and change their rules, so use the current terms of the firm you trade with. This guide uses no firm's rules, is not affiliated with any prop firm and is for education only. It is not financial advice.
Edge matters most
With 1% risk, 1.5R winners, two trades a day, a 10% target, a 5% daily limit, a 10% static drawdown and 30 days, the win rate alone moves the pass rate from 28% to 95%.
| Win rate (1.5R winners) | Expectancy | Pass | Drawdown breach | Out of time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40% | +0.000R | 28% | 28% | 44% |
| 45% | +0.125R | 56% | 10% | 33% |
| 50% | +0.250R | 81% | 3% | 16% |
| 55% | +0.375R | 95% | 1% | 5% |
The payoff works through the same number. With a 45% win rate, raising the average win from 1.25R to 2R moves the pass rate from 25% to 90%.
| Average win | Pass | Drawdown breach | Out of time |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.25R | 25% | 21% | 54% |
| 1.5R | 56% | 10% | 33% |
| 1.75R | 77% | 5% | 18% |
| 2R | 90% | 3% | 7% |
A few points of win rate are worth more than they look, which is also why an estimate from a small sample of trades is fragile. A win rate measured on 50 trades has a wide range around it. The simulator's "win rate 5 points lower" line is a quick check on how much your plan depends on a lucky estimate.
Trades per day change the speed
The same edge and the same risk, with a different number of trades each day, changes how fast the target can be reached:
| Trades per day | Pass | Drawdown breach | Out of time | Median days to pass |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29% | 6% | 65% | 20 |
| 2 | 56% | 10% | 33% | 15 |
| 4 | 77% | 15% | 8% | 10 |
One trade a day passes 29% of attempts, mostly because 65% run out of time. Four trades a day passes 77%. This assumes the edge holds at any number of trades, which in practice it does not: taking more trades than your setup gives you means taking worse trades.
Risk size and rules
Risk per trade has a peak. In the example the pass rate rose from 56% at 1% to 68% at 1.5%, flattened at 69% at 2% and fell to 24% at 3%, where the daily loss limit ended 76% of attempts. The guide to risk per trade in a challenge walks through that table. The drawdown rule matters too: moving from a static to a trailing drawdown, with everything else equal, took the drawdown breach rate from 10% to 23%, and a second phase lowered the pass rate for the whole challenge from 56% to 52%. For what the rules mean, see how prop firm drawdown rules work.
What this guide does not say
It does not quote an industry pass rate. The share of traders who pass depends on who takes the challenge, how they trade and how the firm defines passing, and a figure without a source is not worth repeating. What the math can say is conditional: given these rules, this edge and this size, here is the chance. Change any of the three and the number changes, so the useful thing to do is to test your own.
How to use the math
- Measure your edge on a large sample, in R. If expectancy is zero or negative, no risk size fixes the pass rate.
- Put the firm's current rules into the simulator, and read pass, both breach columns and time-outs, not just the pass rate.
- Check how fragile the result is with a lower win rate.
- Pick a risk size from the sweep with room for a losing streak, then size trades with the prop firm position size calculator.
Try it with your own numbers
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Quick questions
What decides the pass rate of a prop firm challenge?
Mostly three things: your edge (win rate and payoff), your risk per trade and the rules (target, loss limits, drawdown type, time limit). The simulator on this site lets you change each one and see the effect.
What is a normal prop firm pass rate?
This site does not quote one. Published figures vary by source and by how passing is defined, and none comes from this simulator. The simulator gives a conditional answer for the rules and edge you enter.
Why does a small change in win rate matter so much?
Because the target is a race against a clock and two loss limits. In the example, each 5-point step in win rate moved the pass rate by 14 to 28 points, from 28% at 40% to 95% at 55%.
Measure the edge before you test the odds.
The pass rate is only as good as the edge you put in. These indicators help you study setups and their context.
Keep reading
Last updated November 2026. For education only. Not financial advice.