How it works
Two ATR readings are compared: a fast one over 5 bars and a slow one over 50 bars. Their ratio sets the weather: below 0.8 is calm, 0.8 to 1.0 normal, 1.0 to 1.25 building and above 1.25 storm. The expected-range channel is the typical high-to-low range of the next 10 bars, estimated from the same ratio in units of slow ATR. Everything is read on closed bars, so nothing repaints.
Who it is for
Setting stop distance and position size to current volatility. It forecasts the size of moves, never their direction, and it needs no settings.
What you see
- Weather ribbon One small square per bar along the bottom of the pane. Blue is calm (candles small), grey is normal, amber is building (candles getting bigger) and red is storm (big candles likely). The whole history shows when the market was quiet and when it woke up.
- Expected-range channel A shaded channel around a 10-bar EMA of price. Its width is the typical high-to-low range of the next 10 bars. It widens when volatility is rising, tightens when it fades and takes the color of the current weather.
- Forecast label A two-line label above the ribbon, a few bars left of the last candle so it never covers price. It names the weather and what to do with it, for example storm: big moves likely, wider stops, smaller size.
How to use it
- Set stops and size In a storm, wider stops and a smaller position keep the risk in money steady. In calm, tighter stops fit. Pair it with a position size calculator.
- Watch for the first amber squares Building is an early sign that moves are getting bigger.
- Respect calm Quiet periods often end quickly, and the label says so.
- Compare markets Switch symbol or timeframe to see which markets are stormy and which are quiet.
- Keep your own analysis Entries, levels and risk rules stay yours. The indicator only informs about the size of moves.
- Use the alerts Alerts for storm, calm and building volatility mean the chart does not need to be watched.
Settings
- Show expected-range channel On by default. The shaded channel and its edges.
- Show weather ribbon (bottom) On by default. The row of colored squares.
- Show forecast label On by default. The two-line label near the bottom.
- Fixed on purpose There are no other settings. The thresholds and lengths are fixed.
Alerts
- Storm: volatility is high. Fires at bar close when the weather turns to storm.
- Calm: volatility is low. Fires at bar close when the weather turns to calm.
- Storm building. Fires at bar close when the weather first reaches building or storm.
- Use Once Per Bar Close. All alerts follow the current bar only.
Good to know
- Size, not direction: it says how big candles are likely to be, not whether price will rise or fall.
- Typical, not exact: volatility clustering is a tendency, not a rule. On some markets and timeframes, for example hourly forex, the link between weather and the following range is weaker.
- Scheduled and surprise news can cause moves the forecast cannot foresee.
- The first 50 bars of a chart have no reading while the slow ATR is built.
- Use regular candles or bars. On Heikin Ashi, Renko and similar types the values come from synthetic prices.
- It is an indicator, not a strategy. No backtest, win rate or profit figure is published or implied.
Try it on your own chart.
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